Christian Oswald

Christian Oswald

Research Associate

Center for Crisis Early Warning

Welcome! I am a Research Associate at the Center for Crisis Early Warning at the University of the Bundeswehr Munich, and a member of the Research School on Peace & Conflict at the Peace Research Institute Oslo. I earned my PhD from the Department of Political Science at Trinity College Dublin. In addition, I hold a B.A. and M.A. in Political Science from the University of Mannheim and an M.A. in International Relations (Research Track) from the University of Nottingham.

My research interests are explaining and predicting political violence and instability. This includes, but is not limited to, terrorism & insurgencies and civil & international conflict. Methodologically, I am interested in both frequentist and Bayesian statistics, computational social science, and spatial analyses. My dissertation seeks to explain and predict the adoption, timing, and location of terrorism in civil conflicts. My work has been published in International Studies Quarterly and International Interactions. You can find preprints, supplementary materials, replication code and data for my published work on my OSF profile and Dataverse.


  • Political violence & instability
  • International & civil conflict
  • Quantitative methods
  • Computational social science
  • Prediction
  • Causal inference


  • PhD in Political Science

    Trinity College Dublin, Ireland

  • MA in International Relations (Research Track)

    University of Nottingham, United Kingdom

  • MA in Political Science

    University of Mannheim, Germany

  • BA in Political Science

    University of Mannheim, Germany