Christian Oswald

Christian Oswald

Research Associate

Center for Crisis Early Warning

I am a Research Associate at the Center for Crisis Early Warning at the University of the Bundeswehr Munich, and a member of the Research School on Peace & Conflict at the Peace Research Institute Oslo. I was a Visiting Research Fellow in the Patterns of Conflict Emergence (PaCE) project at Trinity College Dublin between February and June 2025. I earned my PhD from the Department of Political Science at Trinity College Dublin. In addition, I hold a B.A. and M.A. in Political Science from the University of Mannheim and an M.A. in International Relations (Research Track) from the University of Nottingham.

My research interests are explaining and predicting political violence and instability such as violent and nonviolent conflict within and between states. Methodologically, I am interested in forecasting, causal inference, computational social science, and spatial analyses. My work has been published or is forthcoming in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, the Journal of Peace Research, International Studies Quarterly, and International Interactions. You can find links to working papers, preprints and published papers, supplementary materials, and replication data and code below. You can follow me on Bluesky and (for now still) Twitter/X.

Interests

  • Political violence & instability
  • International & civil conflict
  • Quantitative methods
  • Computational social science
  • Prediction
  • Causal inference

Education

  • PhD in Political Science

    Trinity College Dublin, Ireland

  • MA in International Relations (Research Track)

    University of Nottingham, United Kingdom

  • MA in Political Science

    University of Mannheim, Germany

  • BA in Political Science

    University of Mannheim, Germany